|
Modern technologies are expanding our
knowledge and improving our lives faster than any time in history. As a
result, we are continually barraged with new claims and ideas. A typical
example is that not too long ago nutritionists agreed the way to good
health was to remove fat from our diet. Now they are saying if we want to
stay healthy fat is okay, and it's the sugars that should be reduced. Both
sides of the argument make sense, but how do we decide which plan to
follow?
People have a tendency to follow their
intuition.
Interestingly enough, people have a
tendency to believe what they feel comfortable with, and whether the
concept is technical or simple, they generally judge new ideas the same
way. Recent studies have shown that most people, even highly educated
persons, have been told only what to think, not how to think. Half of
college graduates believe in concepts like magnetic therapy and ESP. They
accept ideas that blend with what they have learned, and rationalize the
rest away. The result is that most of us don't necessarily draw reasonable
conclusions from the available evidence, but give more weight to what we
intuitively believe.
A logical tool for decision-making
Even for college graduates, there is a
logical tool which allows them to cut through the confusion.
Scientists have used what has become known as "The Scientific
Method" to overcome personal, professional, and social bias since it
was first proposed by Roger Bacon in the 13th century. Another name for
the scientific method is "Evidential Reasoning" and anyone can
use it to separate reasonable ideas from those that are questionable.
This is how it works in five steps:
1) Observe
- Examine the evidence and formulate a question. Take measurements of any
variables. You must choose a question that has a quantifiable answer.
(e.g. "Why do I continue to gain weight?") Weigh
yourself and measure your waist size.
2) Hypothesize
- Formulate a possible explanation which describes the observation.
"I'm eating the wrong foods or it could be because I'm not
exercising. One of those bad habits are the reasons I continue to gain
weight."
3) Predict
-Make a prediction based on the hypothesis. "If I follow a
reduced carbohydrate - high fat diet or start walking regularly, I should
stop gaining weight." The prediction must be falsifiable, that is, it
must be possible to conceive of evidence that can prove the hypothesis
false. There is the possibility that the diet or exercise may cause weight
gain.
4) Experiment
- Test and validate the hypothesis by experimenting. Follow a new diet
regimen for a month.
5) Evaluate
- Analyze the results of the experiment. Weigh and measure yourself after
30 days. If your hypothesis proves to be correct, you've lost weight
and can now fit into your favorite jeans, make another prediction to test
your theory (like exercising, but not dieting). If you continue to gain
weight, make another informed guess. Perhaps exercise and the diet will
help you control your waist.
Two fundamental rules
There are two fundamental rules
accompanying a well-designed study that must be followed: 1) Every
hypothesis must be falsifiable. If a claim can't be proven false it
cannot be proven to be true, and 2) Experiments must be repeatable.
The experiment which proves a hypothesis must be repeatable by other
researchers. Not following these rules are the usual reasons
pseudo-scientific claims like magnetic therapy and numerology are not
accepted by well-informed people.
Observations can be difficult to measure
(e.g. the consequence of an astrological reading) and some types of
experiments are hard to control (e.g. patient compliance for an
experimental diet), but one can use evidential reasoning to test the
validity of just about any claim if there is enough information about how
the "researchers" arrived at their conclusions. |
